The longer timeframe of cannabis legalization in Uruguay has allowed more evaluation, utilizing neighboring countries as control groups, and has found only minimal impacts on adolescent use and perceived risk of use to date . Drawing on the extensive research literature of effective public health regulation of alcohol and tobacco markets , we assumed that more restrictive regulatory approaches, such as government monopoly, non-commercial supply and strict market regulation, are likely to be more effective at reducing the health and social harms of legal cannabis use than lightly regulated commercial markets. Proponents of cannabis legalization have argued that a legal cannabis market could reduce the overall harm of cannabis,rolling bench even if the total number of users increase, by improving the safety of legal cannabis products and by reducing barriers related to help seeking for dependent users.
This may well be the case, but at the time of writing this article, we do not yet have the data, either from overseas jurisdictions or New Zealand, to support this argument. All of the legalization options in our MCDA model projected large reductions in cannabis arrests following legalization regardless of the strictness of the regulatory framework. This is based on the understanding that following legalization cannabis related arrests would be limited to underage use, illegal supply, public disorder, and drug driving. This assumption is supported by evidence from U.S. states that have legalized cannabis where substantial reductions in arrest rates for cannabis have been achieved. Drawing on official New Zealand Police apprehension statistics, we used a baseline figure of 10,500 arrests per year for cannabis under prohibition in New Zealand . Note, this number includes all situations where police have contact with cannabis offenders regardless of whether this results in a formal arrest, prosecution, or conviction. Criteria 3 –Reduce the size of the illegal market All the legalization options in our MCDA projected significant reductions in the illegal cannabis market, while not entirely eliminating the illegal trade.
Again, this reflects experience from legal cannabis jurisdictions in the U.S. and Canada where the illegal cannabis trade has been much reduced, but nonetheless has persisted . The NZ-DHI estimated the annual revenue of the illegal market for cannabis to be $548M based on aggregate cannabis consumption ebb and flow bench. The tax earnings figures in our MCDA assumed that the more heavily regulated legal market options are likely to impose higher excise rates and other taxes and hence collect more total tax revenue. Estimates of the magnitude of the economic benefits of a legal cannabis sector in New Zealand have varied. For example, an economic consultancy firm estimated the government revenues from cannabis legalization in New Zealand would be $191-$249M. The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research , projected annual tax revenues from legal cannabis sales in New Zealand of $490M 2020. Most recently, the economic consultants BERL has advised the New Zealand Ministry of Justice that a legal cannabis sector in New Zealand would generate $923M annually in taxation and licensing fees . Our projections are based on the actual tax earnings reported from legal cannabis sales in Colorado , which has a comparable population to New Zealand . It is also important to note these are estimates of gross tax income and public expenditure is required to implement, regulate and enforce legal cannabis markets .